I can hazard a guess at Touga. This is written assuming Utena does not duel, so his becoming the Victor happens independently of how it occurs in the anime.

Firstly, he is challenged by Saionji. I suspect Saionji will be the first to challenge every Victor, actually, due to his impatience and overconfidence. Saionji will not win - Touga knows him far too well both as a kendo swordsman and as a person. Saionji's buttons will be pressed exactly as needed, and he will be sufficiently rattled for the easy win.

His second challenge, like Utena's, would be Miki. Part of me is tempted to say Juri would be more eager, but I think Akio is going to send the invitation to Miki first. Also, at this point Shiori hasn't returned to Ohtori, so Miki is going to be easier to manipulate. Touga makes quick work of Miki.

If Akio decides to bring Nanami into this, it would be here. I honestly don't think he will unless he requires it to meet the necessary number of duels. IF he does bring in Nanami - she loses, and loses badly. Nanami would have had to be seriously manipulated into dueling her brother in the first place - in the face of everything Akio would do behind the scenes to get her to duel, the loss would be devastating. We would not see Nanami duel again.

At this point, things become problematic.

Juri is the final remaining active council member, as Ruka has yet to make his brief return. Touga has no leverage on Juri as he did with Utena. I don't think that he can out duel her - Ruka was pretty convinced that when Juri was on her game none of the Duellists would be able to match her skill vs skill, and she demonstrated in her duels with Utena during the anime that her ability can even overcome the advantage Dios grants the Victor. What she hasn't faced is the Rose Bride blessing the blade, which I'm certain Touga would unleash on her, having not required it against Saionji or Miki. This is a VERY hard match to decide, not even taking into account if Anthy chooses to influence the outcome.

I don't think he gets by Juri.

However, IF he does, and Utena isn't in the picture yet, then the only person that is going to stop him is Ruka, and it's with Ruka that Touga's stint as the Victor is halted, provided Juri didn't stop him first.

Last edited by Ashnod (09-22-2007 01:56:55 AM)

Actually that's what Ruka was.

When wondering what it may have looked like to see non-Utena duels, you always have the game to fall back on! Actually, I've never played the game, but I've seen clips taken from it. It always seems that while Juri may face off with Miki, or Touga with Saionji, but no one ever actually wins. You see the opponents struggle, switching between the lead, until both fall to the ground. Like I said though, I've never played it, so this may not actually be the case.

This leads me to a question I've thought about before. Was Saionji the first to possess Anthy? I do think that she had moved around by duel before he became victor. But if that is the case, who possessed Anthy to begin with? In the second episode, Juri says something about following the instructions within her first letter and seeing the castle in the sky. She says that she had to stay because of it. I would imagine the others followed a similar path. So did they duel the first time they ever entered the arena? Was Anthy just standing there, waiting for two people to arrive so she may leave with one? Or perhaps everything really did begin with Saionji, and that could lend a hand as to why he believes that he deserves Anthy; Akio may have given her to him first, therefore he is the obvious champion. (Of course there are bigger reasons as to why he fights for her, but I'm just throwing it out there.)

But anyway, so that I won't derail completely, I don't really have much of a take on all the duelists. I'll try to muster something up, but it's all coming from the top of my head, so forgive me if it's a little sloppy. I'll follow the order Utena would fight in.

Assuming that Saionji holds Anthy already, Miki is first. He would put up a pretty strong fight-- Miki is still a very skilled swordsman, no matter how much that is overlooked. I think that he may have gone a little easier on Utena than he would on Saionji. He knows that Utena treats Anthy well, and his drive is purely of his own (manipulated, but still his own) desire. If Saionji held Anthy, there's no telling how much he may mistreat her, if only to get a rise from Miki. Saionji would be brutal; afterall, he has no restraint with women, why should Miki be different? Due to the difference in their training and form, at times it would be hard to distinguish who has the upper hand, the fencer or the kendo team captain. In the end, Saionji would settle on using his brute strength and lack of subtlety, and would easily be able to overthrow Miki and claim his rose. Saionji would remain the victor.

Next is Juri. While Miki has bested Juri once in the fencing hall, I don't really find it a stretch to say that Juri has greater skill with the blade than Miki, as well as more cunning against her opponent. Shiori has yet to return to the academy, and Utena is not there to wave her idealism in Juri's face. Juri doesn't have much of a reason to fight, other than her letter telling her to do so. Her heart wouldn't really be into the duel much, but I'm willing to bet that Saionji doesn't pry enough into Juri's life to understand her weaknesses. It's a hard win to pinpoint. Still, Juri does have great concentration and a reason to win, even if she isn't being provoked. Her skill probably does surpass Saionji, and she's distant enough not to be emotionally driven the way Miki may be. Saionji would certainly have to fall back on dirty tactics like the ones used against Utena and Miki. Unlike them, Juri would most certainly not stand for that, and put him in his place quicker than the snapping of a rose stem. Juri is the victor.

If this time period is pre-Utena, Nanami has yet to be made into a duelist. But, just for the hell of it, let's say she is. I mean, nothing I've said so far actually happened, so why should this be any different? Nanami clearly does admire Juri and wouldn't hold things against her as with Utena. However, silly fillers have shown us that Nanami can easily feel the drive to overcome Juri. Girls are filthy schemers, it's just nature. I can't really say for certain that Nanami would manage to put up much of a fight, if one at all. She was insanely driven in her first duel, moreso than anyone else IMO, and still she lost faster than anyone. Given, Utena's rose was not what Nanami was after, but... I just can't see Nanami and Juri having much of a tough time. Their skill levels are completely unmatched, and I think it goes without saying that Juri would collect that win.

I believe that Juri is the strongest duelist, but I don't think she could win against Touga. Unlike Saionji, Touga knows Juri's secret, and he could easily use it against her. She would hold him off, perhaps longer than Utena, but in the end would probably end up flipping out Juri-style. She does not have the power of Dios on her side, and though she herself has proved to be brilliant without it, in the end she would need that miracle to fall back on. Her momentary lapse of sanity may actually prove to make her an even worthier opponent, but Touga is very collected and calm under pressure, and I feel pretty certain that he would claim her rose, regardless of if he is armed with simple word or a chainsaw. Touga is the victor.

Supposedly, Ruka was a member of the council before Utena came around, so we can imagine that he is here. This is the duel that I haven't got any idea of the outcome. Both are strong physically and pretty stable in a heated situation. Both have gotten close to Akio, and both have had much experience with a sword. I don't think either would be able to hit much of a vein in the other's demeanor, and mindgames would begin to cancel each other out. In the end, the duel would fall back on skill, and both possess an insane amount. However, with Touga as the victor, he would certainly have Anthy protect the sword. The real question is whether or not Ruka has the determination to win. Utena defeated Touga without calling Dios because she was able to move Anthy. Could Ruka manage that? He is said to be the true prince, and perhaps this could spark some nostalgia in Anthy? I don't really believe that he could move Anthy, but the possibility remains. I really can't decide who wins.

I understand what you mean. It's doubtful that Touga could manipulate the was Ruka could. But when you combine the fact that he could probably get under her skin a bit with the fact that Juri isn't too keen on Touga to begin with, I think he has quite a fighting chance. Utena did nothing but mention her ideals and how she got them, and Juri was easily thrown into rage. This made Juri even stronger, but she still ost by "a miracle" and the fact that Utena reminds her of Shiori in many ways (IMO). Touga could pull Juri's strings by flaunting that he is a prince and will give girls like Utena 'false hope'. I certainly don't think Touga would be above using that sort of backwards manipulation against her. All in all, I just think that Touga has a lot of factors working for him, and Juri would have a really tough time against him.

Again though, it's very possible that Juri would win, almost certain, if she knows about how to activate the sword through Anthy. But I don't really think she does know, it appears as though Touga is the only one who does.

This is true. Since these duels were never documented, we have no way to know the outcomes, or even if they happened at all. Just educated guessing.

No Victor is going to lose the Black Rose duels. Certainly not with Anthy supporting the Victor.

Ragnarok wrote:

But I do think Touga could manipulate Juri to gain an advantage in duelling her. We don't see him do so specifically in the series, but this is at least partially because he doesn't need to. In episode seven he gives her some prodding to make sure she duels (like he did with Miki but with less sex on a piano) and that's all he needed to do. If he were to be going up against Juri personally I'm sure he'd go far above his minor taunting in order to secure victory. It never comes up though, for when Juri once again needs prodding to duel, Ruka has arrived on the scene with a far more personal bent.

Hmm. I don't seen Touga prodding Juri like he did Mik - I can't remember him saying anything specifically leading into the Episode 7 Duel that actually motivated her or coerced her into doing it.

I think without Utena in the picture, Nanami would be a Black Rose Duelist instead of a regular Duelist. Picture Nanami with Touga's sword...and his skill.

What would have to be taken into account is who would be the Victor at the time, and that Touga wouldn't have had his little meltdown after Utena beat him in episode 12. And would Wakaba be a Black Rose Duelist if Saionji never gets expelled and hides in her room?

Raven Nightshade wrote:

I think without Utena in the picture, Nanami would be a Black Rose Duelist instead of a regular Duelist. Picture Nanami with Touga's sword...and his skill.

Now that's something I don't want to run into in a dark alley.

Ashnod wrote:

I disagree that this actually was goading Juri in anyway, certainly not like sleeping with Kozue in the previous episodes. This seems more like necessary narrative to explain who Juri is up to this point. She was already sufficiently motivated to duel and that much is made clear before Episode 7- this really didn't have any influence on her, in my opinion.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion. Now, I say Touga was goading Juri, but not that he was successful. It isn't until her conversation with Utena that Juri really decides to duel seriously. Likewise, though Touga was motivating Miki to duel, it isn't until Anthy specifically says she'd stop playing the piano at Utena's say so that Miki decides to duel.

Although I'm not sure what came before Episode 7 to indicate she was already motivated to duel? Aside from that she's part of the Student Council and expresses some interest in world revolution, which is a given. During the meeting in 7 Juri appears disinterested, even though it's her own duel which is coming up.

Regardless of all that, I don't think Touga's lack of manipulation towards Juri (counting episode 7 or not) is evidence that he'd be incapable of doing so.

Old topic, but I thought I'd weigh in on the Touga vs. Juri repartee. To me, the key to understanding their conversation is the knife-throwing. It's one of the few student council antics that actually made sense to me. In the scene, Touga practices his knife-throwing, using Miki as a practice dummy. He eventually creates Miki's silhouette on the wall behind him, outlined in knives. He does this blindfolded. To me, it seems that his words are knives aimed at Juri. His blindfold indicates that he can't really see his target, so I don't think he knows who the object of Juri's affection is, but his skill is such that he can't quite miss. As he hurls his words at her, an outline appears...but whose? Shiori's perhaps? Anyway, the upshot of all of that is that I think Touga does get under her skin, but probably not for the reasons he thinks...I think a duel between them would have many back and forth moments as one or the other gained the upper hand...decision: Juri. She's got more spirit, and I think that would be the deciding factor.