Oddly enough, some precincts in Indiana and Kentucky have already reported their vote totals, even though the official poll closing time isn't for another half hour in either state.  I'm not sure what's going on there.  Less than one percent of the vote has been counted in either state, but what has been counted gives us no reason to doubt what we already suspected: both states will probably vote for Romney.

Another state has also already counted a few votes, but I know what's going on there.  A few tiny hamlets in New Hampshire, most famously Dixville Notch, traditionally cast their votes at midnight on Election Day.  Their ballots are the first in the nation to be counted.  Dixville Notch has done a pretty good job predicting the outcome of past elections; they got Bill Clinton wrong both times, but have otherwise gotten every election right since 1980.  This year the vote in Dixville Notch was tied, 5-5, amid record low turnout.

And now the AP has called Kentucky for Romney: Romney 8 - Obama 3.  I expect it won't be long until South Carolina, Georgia, and possibly Indiana join Romney's column.  It will take much longer to know which way Virginia voted.

The next round of poll closings is at 7:30, when North Carolina and Ohio close up shop -- assuming voting hours are not extended, which sometimes happens when lines are long.

If anyone is bored as we wait for more polls to close and for results to start coming in, you could browse the first couple waves of battleground state exit polls.  Keep in mind that most of these states haven't even closed their voting places yet, and real-time exit polls are usually pretty bad anyway, so don't attach too much significance to these numbers.

Digital voting fuckery is a real worry.  I worry about sabotage and vote-stealing when it comes to these machines that have no paper trails.  Nothing stops the software from showing you a vote for Obama but recording a vote for Romney or vice versa.  In Ohio, they changed the software at the last minute without running it by the state's examiners first.  A judge ruled that voting should go forward on the new software anyway.  It's probably nothing.  But I worry.

7:30 and the polls are closed in NC, OH, and WV.  The Associated Press promptly called West Virginia for Romney, putting the electoral vote score at Romney 13 - Obama 3.  The AP still has not called Indiana, which all the TV networks have called for Romney, nor South Carolina or Georgia, where Obama is also not thought to have a realistic chance.   We are unlikely to see results in the swing states of North Carolina or Ohio for some time.

At 8:00 the polls will close in a whole slew of places, but especially Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania -- which are electorally important -- and Maryland and Maine -- where same-sex marriage in on the ballot.  If I were a team of five individuals, I would track Senate races for you too, but the best I'm going to be able to do is check in on them occasionally.

Last edited by satyreyes (11-06-2012 05:38:37 PM)

If I were a team of five individuals, I would track Senate races for you too, but the best I'm going to be able to do is check in on them occasionally.

Heh. You're already doing the work of five people. It's fun keeping tabs on this along with the TV and various other stuff, thanks for doing it.

After much cautious interpreting of the incoming vote, the AP has finally called South Carolina (where Obama still leads 55-44) for Romney, along with Indiana.  The electoral vote score so far is thus Romney 33, Obama 3.  But Illinois and most of New England has just closed its polls; expect Obama's number to rise soon.  (Many TV networks already have Obama ahead.)

I've been hearing from a lot of TV stations (based on exit polls, i think?) that the number of african americans voting in this election is higher than the last go round. In PA, VA, and some other places that are being focused on on the east coast at least. Any thoughts why that would be the case, assuming the info is accurate? It doesn't bother me or anything of course, but it does surprise me somewhat. The last election was definitely historic and, in my opinion at least, featured a very strong contrast between the two candidates (which, imo, has faded slightly since Obama took office). But anyways, I get why turn out would have been high for the last year not just with african americans, but with everyone in general.

I can't really figure out why it would be higher this time.

Oops, backtrack: while the New York Times has called Massachusetts for Obama, the AP still has not.  I should have said 40-40.

The only state that closes its polls at 8:30 is Arkansas, which should be called for Romney pretty quickly, so now we settle in to watch the states that are already closed as more results stream in.  The AP has not made any new calls, even as the TV networks rush to call Alabama, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Tennessee, among others.  The TV networks are actually exercising some moderation this year.  There's quite a bit of variation so far as to who has called what, and they're waiting a bit after polls close to make most of their calls -- though maybe that's just good TV.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight reports that in a fast-counting Virginian county, where more than three-quarters of the vote is in, Romney's margin of victory is almost exactly the same as McCain's in 2008.  If this holds up, it is a promising result for Obama.

My little brother tells me that a weatherman on CBS's Hawaii affiliate just called today "Chooseday," since it's the day we choose our elected representatives.  I think it's important to take time out of this stressful election night to acknowledge exceptionally bad wordplay.  But then again, it's also important to take time out to acknowledge what a miracle we're witnessing.  For most of history -- and for that matter still in most of the world -- there has never been a reliable, orderly, peaceful mechanism in place to remove one ruling group and replace them with another.  Democracy that works is amazing.

Less than three percent of the vote has been counted in either Maine or Maryland, but same-sex marriage is currently ahead in both states.

Like an fool, I accidentally spent election day in New Mexico on a wacky sudden impulse. Unfortunately I reside in Missouri.

With the passing of 9:00, we have a big set of AP calls.  The big prizes are New York (Obama) and Texas (Romney).  Romney also takes Louisiana, Nebraska, Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.  Obama gets Michigan -- which had sometimes been called a swing state, though without much good reason.  The score is now Romney 142, Obama 109, still with no swing states in.  270 to win.

Last edited by satyreyes (11-06-2012 07:10:55 PM)

Some of the TV networks are finally calling the first swing state, Pennsylvania, for Obama.  The AP and Times have not said anything about it.  If this holds up, it is not exactly surprising, but it is certainly a disappointment for the Romney campaign, which put a lot of resources there over the past couple weeks on an outside bet that they could win it.  The AP has, however, called Arkansas for Romney, increasing his edge: Romney 148, Obama 109.

Long lines persist in Virginia and Florida -- I wonder how long those voters will stand around waiting in the dark.  Florida remains ass-tight, within a few thousand votes out of over six million counted, recount territory with 62% of precincts reporting.  Virginia is up to 47% reporting, and Romney is ahead 54-45.  Fairfax is still lagging behind the state.

Ohio is counting much more slowly, still with only 3% of precincts reporting.  I swear to God this happens every election cycle.  For whatever it's worth, Obama is well ahead there.

Maine and Maryland are counting infuriatingly slowly.  I have no reliable news for you about marriage equality.

Last edited by satyreyes (11-06-2012 07:19:58 PM)